From Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”