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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's long-running bid to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as close to the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a summit obstructed from the leadership if his administration led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and deliver an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.