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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd